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☆ Inflation has investors on edge. But some sectors have deflated
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But there are categories of goods and services that have deflated — that is, their prices have actually dropped. "You're still seeing some pockets of deflation," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. The initial pandemic-era craze for consumers to fix up their homes and upgrade their home offices has diminished, cooling prices. This makes it less expensive for U.S. companies to import goods from overseas, since the dollar can buy more. The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, according to Federal Reserve data.

Persons: they've, Sarah House Organizations: Getty, Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The big rock in the way here is the cost of shelter," Zandi said. In fact, underlying inflation after stripping out shelter costs is already back to target, Zandi said. watch nowThe increase is largely attributable to higher oil prices. "For most Americans, the thing that bothers them the most about inflation is high food prices." Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — like entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation.

Persons: Eric Thayer, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's, Hamrick, They're, Sarah House Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, of Labor Statistics, U.S, Energy Information Administration, BLS, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ A key inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding food and energy, the increase for core inflation, is forecast at a 0.3% gain, also one-tenth of a percentage point above the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, headline inflation is expected to show a 3.1% gain and core inflation a 3.7% increase when the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on the consumer price index Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. On the brighter side, House said lower prices on travel, medical care and other services helped keep inflation in check. Still, Wells Fargo has raised its full-year inflation forecast. Focusing on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the preferred Fed gauge, Wells Fargo sees inflation at 2.5% for the year, versus a prior estimate for 2.2%.

Persons: Elijah Nouvelage, Dow Jones, Sarah House, Wells, Wells Fargo Organizations: Kroger, AFP, Getty, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, AAA, CPI, Wells, New York Fed Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, Wells Fargo, isn't

☆ A bigger pool of American workers could continue to slow inflation even further
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Now, as the Federal Reserve faces the final stretch of its historic inflation battle, a bigger pool of workers could slow inflation even further. That then begs the question: How much more can better labor supply slow inflation? The US Labor Department releases January figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended March 2. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February inflation data.

Persons: Mary Daly, “, ” Sarah House, Michael Gapen, That’s, Jack Bantock, ’, ”, Richard Felton, Thomas, ’ ”, Patrick Harker, Ross, Nordstrom, Michael Barr, Campbell Soup, Foot, Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, National Association for Business Economics, Labor, CNN, Bank of America, White House’s Council, Economic Advisers, English Premier League, Chelsea, Burnley, Philadelphia Fed, Target, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, Abercrombie, Fitch, Financial Services, The Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Broadcom, Costco, Eagle Outfitters, Potbelly, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, European Central Bank, Cleveland Fed, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, San, Wells, United States, London, JD.com, Kroger, Burlington, DocuSign

☆ January jobs report: Expect to see strong but slower hiring and an uptick in the unemployment rate
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —The first jobs report for 2024, set to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday, is expected to underscore the strength of the US economy despite 11 rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. That can make the January jobs report among the trickiest to forecast, said Sarah House, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. Friday’s jobs report also will include the final annual benchmark review of payroll data for the 12 months that ended in March 2023. However, excluding January 2023, last month’s job cuts were the highest seen in January since 2009, according to Challenger. US worker productivity grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to a BLS report released Thursday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, Sarah House, Wells, “ We’re, ”, there’s, Boussour, EY, ” Boussour, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, haven’t, ” Andrew Challenger, people’s paychecks, ” Diane Swonk, “, —, Swonk Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor, Workers, Challenger, ”, BLS, KPMG, CNN Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, United States

☆ Fed Chair Powell says the job market is still strong. Here’s how the numbers break down
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

That can make the January jobs report among the trickiest to forecast, said Sarah House, a senior economist with Wells Fargo. Friday’s jobs report also will include the final annual benchmark review of payroll data for the 12 months that ended in March 2023. Fresh data on job cuts and productivityOn Thursday, the layoff picture became clearer. However, excluding January 2023, last month’s job cuts were the highest seen in January since 2009, according to Challenger. US worker productivity grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, according to a BLS report released Thursday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, he’s, Sarah House, Wells, “ We’re, ”, there’s, Boussour, EY, ” Boussour, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, haven’t, ” Andrew Challenger, people’s paychecks, ” Diane Swonk, “, —, Swonk Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Workers, Challenger, ”, BLS, KPMG, CNN Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, United States

☆ Fed meeting walkup: Chair Powell expected to announce rates will hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.

Persons: Jerome Powell’s, —, ” Sarah House, “, ”, Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San

☆ Why that ‘last mile’ of the inflation fight may be more challenging
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.

Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ US job openings hit a two-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s the lowest number job openings seen during a month since March 2021 and is further evidence of a cooling US labor market, according to the BLS’ October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report. October’s tally is significantly lower than the record 12.03 million positions hit in March 2022, and the figure is approaching the roughly 7 million openings seen pre-pandemic. After two consecutive months of JOLTS surprising to the upside, the latest job openings total came in well under expectations. Economists’ forecasts called for the October postings to hit 9.3 million, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. Employers, employees more cautiousThe Federal Reserve has been hoping to see more slack in the labor market to help in the central bank’s fight to bring down inflation.

Persons: ” Karin Kimbrough, “, ” Kimbrough, “ They’ve, Tuesday’s, Kimbrough, ”, “ They’re, Wells, Sarah House, Michael Pugliese Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, CNN, Federal Reserve, Employees, “ Locations: Minneapolis

☆ What to Watch in the CPI Report: Did Inflation Heat Up or Cool Down Last Month?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Amara Omeokwe | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesAmericans paid less for gasoline last month, helping keep inflation in check, but underlying price pressures remained steady in October, analysts estimate. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate consumer prices rose 0.1% in October from the prior month and 3.3% from a year earlier. Those economists also think so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose 0.3% in October from the prior month and 4.1% from a year earlier. At some point, an inflation reading could make the Fed more comfortable with the progress it has made to slow price increases. The Labor Department will release the October consumer-price index report at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday.

Persons: Brandon Bell, “, ”, Sarah House Organizations: Getty, Federal, Wall, Labor Department Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long term. Gasoline prices fell in OctoberWhat's happening under the surfaceEnergy prices can whipsaw inflation readings due to their volatility. That's why economists like to look at a measure that strips out these prices when assessing underlying inflation trends. This pared-down measure — known as the "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4% in October from 4.1% in September. Housing inflation declined in October, to 6.7% relative to a year earlier, and has fallen from a peak over 8% in March 2023, according to BLS data.

Persons: Joe Biden, David Paul Morris, Sarah House, Mark Zandi, Zandi, It's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, CPI, BLS Locations: Hercules , California, U.S, Wells Fargo, American, Russia, Ukraine

Many people subsequently turned to remote work, and the workforce recovered but only to be plunged into three years of an incredibly tight labor market. Today, the unemployment rate is at 3.9% following an increase in October from the prior’s month’s 3.8% level, and by most measures the labor market is considered very strong. “It does seem like the labor market is getting a little more balanced,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The overwhelmingly takeaway is that the labor market has defied most predictions and shown a level of resiliency and adaptability that has surprised many observers. This was the “excess retirements” who were causing the labor market to be exceptionally tight.

Persons: Gene Tannuzzo, “, ”, Bill Armstrong, “ We've, Guy Berger, James Neave, ” Neave, –, Berger, ’ Berger, Sarah House, it’s, women’s Organizations: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Safeguard Global, Technology, LinkedIn, Walmart, General Motors, Google, Wells, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, & $ Locations: Minnesota

☆ U.S. Job Openings Were Steady in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Santul Nerkar | More About Santul Nerkar | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve closely monitors job openings to understand whether the economy is running too hot. The overall trend of slowing job openings is a sign that rate increases have cooled the economy, according to experts. Job openings, which reached a record of more than 12 million in March 2022, have trended down, as has the job-quitting rate, while separations have been flat. As openings rose slightly in September, the number of openings per unemployed worker was flat, at 1.5, the same as August. Job openings remain much higher than they were before the pandemic, and the number of unemployed workers per job opening is much lower.

Persons: Julia Pollak, ”, Sarah House, Stephen Juneau, What’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ” Fed, Bank of America, Treasury, Labor Department Locations: Wells Fargo, September’s

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mario Tama | Getty ImagesInflation was unchanged in September, but price pressures seem poised to continue their broad and gradual easing in coming months, according to economists. Despite recent improvements, economists say it will take a while for inflation to return to normal, stable levels. The U.S. Federal Reserve aims for a 2% annual inflation rate over the long-term. "Ultimately, inflation is still the most menacing issue in the economy right now," said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. Why inflation is returning to normalAt a high level, inflationary pressures — which have been felt globally — are due to an imbalance between supply and demand.

Persons: Mario Tama, Andrew Hunter, Sarah House, there's Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Russia, Ukraine

☆ Wells Fargo's House: Remains to be seen how high bond yields go but will be affected by the Fed path
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWells Fargo's House: Remains to be seen how high bond yields go but will be affected by the Fed pathSarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much higher bond yields can go, the Federal Reserve's 'higher for longer' narrative, and when the economy feels the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes.

Persons: Sarah House, Wells Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Inflation is expected to slow because of these trends
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —US inflation has slowed steadily from its four-decade peak last June, and it’s expected to cool further thanks to easing car prices and rents. Despite the expected inflation drop, she said investors anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady and not cut them anytime soon. “It may take a little bit longer than expected for inflation to come down to 2%, and inflation being in a 2-3% range next year is reasonable,” she said. Tuesday: Canada’s statistics agency releases August inflation data. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases August inflation data.

Persons: we’re, ” José Torres, “, ”, Sarah House, Saira Malik, Michelle Toh, ” Read, General Mills, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Interactive Brokers, CNN, “, ”, United Auto Workers, CPI, San, San Francisco Fed, National Association of Home Builders, US Commerce Department, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, FedEx, General, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Darden Restaurants, The Bank of England, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Global Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, China, Michelle Toh ., Japan’s

☆ US consumer prices continued to rise last month — but the Fed probably won’t raise rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

However, core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, continued to slow, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.6% in August, compared with a 0.2% gain in July. Monthly core inflation rose by 0.3% in August, picking up significantly for the first time since February. The CPI’s gasoline index jumped 10.6% in August from the prior month, up sharply from the 0.2% gain in July. Gasoline prices are highly visible indicators of inflation, so more pain at the pump could also weigh on US consumers’ moods.

Persons: Sarah House Organizations: DC CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, AAA, CNN Locations: Washington, OPEC, Libya, Wells

☆ Inflation speeds up as gas prices climb, and some details could keep the Fed wary.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists and investors were closely watching the report, which is the last major data release the Fed will receive before its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. Fed officials have already raised interest rates to a range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, up sharply from near-zero as recently as March 2022. Policymakers at the Fed want to avoid raising rates by so much that the delayed effects add up to tank economic growth. But they also want to avoid doing too little and allowing inflation to become a lasting feature of the American economy. Central bankers will release a fresh set of economic projections following their meeting next week.

Persons: they’ve, ”, Sarah House, “ We’re Organizations: Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Central

☆ The Fed cares a lot about jobs data — but it may be getting mixed signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The answer matters a lot to Federal Reserve officials who closely monitor the labor market. Some Fed officials believe more rate hikes are needed to cool the labor market. But the gap between ADP and BLS data does not automatically narrow when comparing ADP to BLS estimates of only private-sector jobs. Between the two, it’s difficult to say which is a better predictor of the true state of the labor market. Ultimately, ADP and BLS data “become checks on each other,” she told CNN.

Persons: It’s, ” Nela Richardson, Richardson, Sarah House, ”, Erica Groshen, Groshen, ” Richardson, House, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, ADP, BLS, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Cornell University Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, “, United States

☆ US labor market resilient; productivity rebounds in second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ Soft landing odds have improved but economy will see sluggish growth: Wells Fargo's Sarah House
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSoft landing odds have improved but economy will see sluggish growth: Wells Fargo's Sarah HouseSarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what House is concerned about in the economy, the strong macroeconomic data, and more.

Persons: Wells, Sarah, Sarah House Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Two economic experts discuss the Fed's path forward following June's cooler-than-expected CPI print
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo economic experts discuss the Fed's path forward following June's cooler-than-expected CPI printSarah House, Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, and Tomas Philipson, Former Acting CEA Chairman, discuss what's next to the Federal Reserve following cooler-than-expected June inflation data.

Persons: Sarah, Tomas Philipson Organizations: Federal Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ June jobs report preview: Growth but gradual cooling expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —When the June jobs report lands on Friday, it’s all but certain to show that the US labor market has added jobs for 30 consecutive months. And this year’s monthly average of 314,000 net job gains far exceeds what was seen before the pandemic, including during that 100-month stretch post-Great Recession. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said she’s expecting a “gradual cooling” to wash over the labor market. “The jobs market is not collapsing,” she said. The timing of the Fourth of July holiday resulted in a load of labor market data landing within 24 hours of the government’s monthly jobs report.

Persons: Sarah House, she’s, ”, wilder, Andy Challenger, ” Aaron Terrazas Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Challenger, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Wells Fargo

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Sarah House and Veritas Financial's Gregory Branch
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Sarah House and Veritas Financial's Gregory BranchSarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist, and Gregory Branch, founder and managing partner at Veritas Financial Group, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss if now's the time to pivot positioning, how hard it's been to maintain Branch's bearish stance amid equity rallies, and why inflation will continue to be sticky.

Persons: Wells, Sarah House, Gregory, Sarah, Gregory Branch Organizations: Veritas, Veritas Financial Group Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BMO's Carol Schleif and Wells Fargo's Sarah House
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BMO's Carol Schleif and Wells Fargo's Sarah HouseCarol Schleif, BMO Family Office CIO, and Sarah House, Wells Fargo Corporate & Investment bank senior economist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the market outlook as A.I. continues to dominate and the jobs report looms.

Persons: BMO's Carol Schleif, Wells, Sarah, Carol Schleif, Sarah House Organizations: BMO Family, Wells, Wells Fargo Corporate, Investment Locations: Wells Fargo

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